Public scorecardStill being tested

Our calls, graded in public.

Each call is locked before the market reacts, then judged on real closing prices once its time is up. Hits and misses stay here for good. Updated every trading day.

Not proven yet. Foghorn won't call itself proven until it has 300 graded five-day calls that beat every simple guess below. Please don't trade on these.

43 of 300 five-day calls
Right, next 5 days25 of 4260% of calls where the stock moved · 1 flat
vs just guessing up−4 ptsit scored 64% on the same 42 calls
vs a coin flip+15 ptsit scored 45% on the same 42 calls
Simple guesses beaten1 of 5behind 2, level with 2: all shown below

Against simple guesses, on the same calls

On calls for the next 5 trading days, Foghorn is ahead of 1 of 5 simple guesses, behind 2, level with 2. If it can't beat these, it isn't worth paying for.

  • Foghorn
    Our calls
    60%
  • Just guessing up
    Calling every stock up, on the same days
    64%Behind
  • Coin flip
    Up or down at random, fixed by each call's fingerprint so anyone can redo it
    45%Ahead
  • Following the last week
    Calling the way the stock moved in the 5 days before
    60%Level
  • Following the sector
    Calling the way its industry moved in the 5 days before
    76%Behind
  • The AI's read on its own
    The AI's up or down from the news alone, where it read the story · Foghorn 61% on these calls
    61%Level
A tougher test
  • Foghorn, against the S&P 500
    Right only when the stock beat the S&P 500 (for an up call) or trailed it (for a down call)
    62%

With 42 calls where the stock moved, Foghorn's true hit rate is likely between 44% and 73% (95% range). It narrows as more calls are graded.

Does “how sure” mean anything?

Every call says how likely it is to be right. Each group should come true about as often as it says. Both call lengths together.

  • When it said “a bit better than even”98 that moved
    Said about 54%, right 62% of the time
  • When it said “about 6 in 10”11 that moved
    Said about 58%, right 64% of the time

The bar is how often calls came true; the black mark is what they said. Groups with few calls swing a lot.

Every graded call

Calls for the next 5 trading days, most recently judged first. Open calls appear once they're graded, and once every other call on the same news is graded too, so none gives an open call away.
  • Judged Oct 30SLBSLBCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: SLB 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 23, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 18f725…19736a2618f725fdbe75544159ba0cc56cbec308fc354edadbf60b0945a417d919736a26
  • Judged Oct 29KMIKinder MorganCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kinder Morgan 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 0.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 1:18 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint d0042c…53df2081d0042cbf4abc8b7d6849f717261f5db2cbc4bc460c9da8749710eb4e53df2081
  • Judged Oct 29IBMIBMCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: IBM 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 10:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 6e00a8…69b0b7a86e00a8fedb7808bb187d1c08516fc8a78374129df5dea67513fd2f2669b0b7a8
  • Judged Oct 29BXBlackstoneCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Blackstone 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 10:03 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint ab25d5…b30c1bf6ab25d5937845e2524898e4e6c50d39656356b674309d795a06572430b30c1bf6
  • Judged Oct 29HONHoneywellCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Honeywell 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 6:31 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 66e849…90ddbf5966e849d853ae67549e88e9ddf25f2ccb6d592c5ef15ae009714d26c990ddbf59
  • Judged Oct 29TXNTexas InstrumentsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Texas Instruments 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 11.9%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 6:03 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 2cb770…c69352d22cb770a12863315e5bf7346b0855c6e74a39d4fbc7564bac92dacb5bc69352d2
  • Judged Oct 28ORCLOracleCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Recon: AZ, Oracle partner for AI-powered clinical trials; FDA approves Haemonetics vascular closure systemThe stock rose 11.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 6:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 2f0794…4e607f062f0794989cf1121f5600efbae1a7569ce6463ffbeda5e7e82345b82e4e607f06
  • Judged Oct 28ISRGIntuitive SurgicalCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Intuitive Surgical 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 3.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 5:04 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 2ca91c…b180ebc42ca91c81c1730a00dbd71a8af1ef30a2a46695cf2eb37bd84f5d99ddb180ebc4
  • Judged Oct 28NFLXNetflixCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Netflix (NFLX) earnings Q3 2026The stock fell 4.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 4:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 739a64…bc4e6962739a643bf6a7ed1d3f2436c73bff802ed975d796780efa1524f2636ebc4e6962
  • Judged Oct 27KRKrogerCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kroger 8-K: Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01)The stock rose 4.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 9c1f60…311fb4909c1f60cede60faa9e65ddfc3d99b04d25493db834b649b7d11cab1ce311fb490
  • Judged Oct 26AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Arm and AMD Fall 5% as Qualcomm Verdict Adds to Chip Selloff; Taiwan Semiconductor SlipsThe stock fell 1.2%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 11:17 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 6a0768…4ff2f6c96a07688f4ac35c73ac55946a1cd4e4b8f0dbf012c345efb3d861c69a4ff2f6c9
  • Judged Oct 26ETNEatonCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Accounting or distress · EatonThe stock fell 5.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 5:30 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint c5fee4…0e394b8ec5fee40c879546cab9bf85d1c6734e4857c3342f9a238dc36e6765960e394b8e
  • Judged Oct 23BACBank of AmericaCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Bank of America Down? Customers Report CashPro, Login and Online Banking Problems in Friday Morning OutageThe stock fell 1.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 1:32 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint e41b47…b77daeffe41b47127a5eae20b8ba7ad8c6dd1f9bfdfa9596fdbe8e95e5c977afb77daeff
  • Judged Oct 23TFCTruistCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Truist 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.9%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 10:18 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint d9e7c3…206dfdbfd9e7c38647a5d80e0cf9e8861a831790bf447bd872a27b5dc3d827a8206dfdbf
  • Judged Oct 23WFCWells FargoCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Black Homeownership: Wells Fargo Faces HUD Investigation.The stock fell 1.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 9:16 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 0780fd…ab69d0f20780fdafa3a4dff7ee4c4d203a2427625f729fa77c5645ba8caa21c9ab69d0f2
  • Judged Oct 22USBU.S.Called Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: U.S. 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 4.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 10:01 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint f4ddae…4cec946ff4ddae9d1e208a07b5b63953329157d72b50ff57d5182bcaa01d746f4cec946f
  • Judged Oct 22BNYBNYCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: BNY 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 6:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint a6e6db…75452872a6e6db4c1c1b14f0ce7420fce66583efe8dbc1b45264468117a152a375452872
  • Judged Oct 21METAMeta PlatformsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Meta says its GitHub was hacked, exposing 1,500 people's personal data.The stock fell 5.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 2e5758…0a9ccf512e5758467bef36666a16b666f369eeba973c625d3f4d66659e18ac860a9ccf51
  • Judged Oct 21LLYEli LillyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Eli Lilly Reports Earnings on Oct. 29. Here's Why the Retatrutide Story Matters More Than the Quarter.The stock rose 5.0%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 613923…bb4c488f613923e8b225fa81fa1b9237b844157db247215cf25f74736d9e8efebb4c488f
  • Judged Oct 20JPMJPMorgan ChaseCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: JPMorgan Chase 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 10:16 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 4189da…516a78454189dabd973f0935b3f5f2750b98beba6339a12d97a142b0aed6c04e516a7845
  • Judged Oct 20UNHUnitedHealthCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: UnitedHealth 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 11.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint b49282…3341fc61b49282cb0026359172803369ebda087736ecd585300824e53d54c2d13341fc61
  • Judged Oct 19DALDelta Air LinesCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 forecast on fuel surge, but CEO says demand is still strongThe stock fell 6.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 11, 8:04 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 78ce9a…5b48fa5678ce9a7f7337a139c2e50ebca83338b1ed473595d40b3191b4ccb3885b48fa56
  • Judged Oct 16DVNDevon EnergyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Devon Energy 8-K: Other events (Item 8.01)The stock rose 5.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 4:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 2b85bd…01ef77762b85bd6e2ae847516ea7a1fd8cd38856295f49719f0bfd41c1645dcc01ef7776
  • Judged Oct 15GDGeneral DynamicsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: General Dynamics 8-K: Director or officer change (Item 5.02)The stock rose 2.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 11:16 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 001fde…66d0abf1001fdea34caf3073a62b5bf80182e98f3a02d3a8cab273fbc712dbb666d0abf1
  • Judged Oct 14LMTLockheed MartinCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: BAE Systems wins Lockheed Martin contract to supply F-35 EW systemsThe stock rose 4.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 7, 3:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint d12639…6aafc1efd12639513053ca792754665e1cffcd9772f555b3c76165a1fbc1fdaf6aafc1ef

Chain check: all 271 calls in the ledger match their fingerprints

Each call's fingerprint includes the one before it, so no past call can be changed without breaking every one after it. Open calls are in the ledger too; they appear here once graded.

Latest daily stamp: Oct 30 · in Bitcoin block 973,872

How the proof works

What counts. Calls made from Oct 7, 2026 on (scorer version stage_a-7 and later). The 89 calls made by earlier test versions stay in the ledger, but they aren't counted or listed here.

How a call is judged. From the first closing price after the call was locked to the close one or five trading days later, adjusted for dividends and splits. A move of 0.2% or less (next day) or 0.5% or less (five days) counts as flat and is left out of the hit rate. Each simple guess is scored on the same calls, and only where it has the data it needs.

General market commentary, made the same way for everyone. It isn't investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and past accuracy does not promise future results.