Our calls, graded in public.
Each call is locked before the market reacts, then judged on real closing prices once its time is up. Hits and misses stay here for good. Updated every trading day.
Not proven yet. Foghorn won't call itself proven until it has 300 graded five-day calls that beat every simple guess below. Please don't trade on these.
Against simple guesses, on the same calls
On calls for the next 5 trading days, Foghorn is ahead of 1 of 5 simple guesses, behind 2, level with 2. If it can't beat these, it isn't worth paying for.
- FoghornOur calls60%42 that moved
- Just guessing upCalling every stock up, on the same days64%42 that movedBehind
- Coin flipUp or down at random, fixed by each call's fingerprint so anyone can redo it45%42 that movedAhead
- Following the last weekCalling the way the stock moved in the 5 days before60%42 that movedLevel
- Following the sectorCalling the way its industry moved in the 5 days before76%42 that movedBehind
- The AI's read on its ownThe AI's up or down from the news alone, where it read the story · Foghorn 61% on these calls61%41 that movedLevel
- Foghorn, against the S&P 500Right only when the stock beat the S&P 500 (for an up call) or trailed it (for a down call)62%39 that moved
With 42 calls where the stock moved, Foghorn's true hit rate is likely between 44% and 73% (95% range). It narrows as more calls are graded.
Does “how sure” mean anything?
Every call says how likely it is to be right. Each group should come true about as often as it says. Both call lengths together.
- When it said “a bit better than even”98 that movedSaid about 54%, right 62% of the time
- When it said “about 6 in 10”11 that movedSaid about 58%, right 64% of the time
The bar is how often calls came true; the black mark is what they said. Groups with few calls swing a lot.
Every graded call
Calls for the next 5 trading days, most recently judged first. Open calls appear once they're graded, and once every other call on the same news is graded too, so none gives an open call away.- Judged Oct 30SLBSLBCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: SLB 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 23, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 18f725…19736a26
18f725fdbe75544159ba0cc56cbec308fc354edadbf60b0945a417d919736a26 - Judged Oct 29KMIKinder MorganCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kinder Morgan 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 0.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 1:18 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d0042c…53df2081
d0042cbf4abc8b7d6849f717261f5db2cbc4bc460c9da8749710eb4e53df2081 - Judged Oct 29IBMIBMCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: IBM 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 10:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 6e00a8…69b0b7a8
6e00a8fedb7808bb187d1c08516fc8a78374129df5dea67513fd2f2669b0b7a8 - Judged Oct 29BXBlackstoneCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Blackstone 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 10:03 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint ab25d5…b30c1bf6
ab25d5937845e2524898e4e6c50d39656356b674309d795a06572430b30c1bf6 - Judged Oct 29HONHoneywellCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Honeywell 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 6:31 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 66e849…90ddbf59
66e849d853ae67549e88e9ddf25f2ccb6d592c5ef15ae009714d26c990ddbf59 - Judged Oct 29TXNTexas InstrumentsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Texas Instruments 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 11.9%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 6:03 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 2cb770…c69352d2
2cb770a12863315e5bf7346b0855c6e74a39d4fbc7564bac92dacb5bc69352d2 - Judged Oct 28ORCLOracleCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Recon: AZ, Oracle partner for AI-powered clinical trials; FDA approves Haemonetics vascular closure systemThe stock rose 11.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 6:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 2f0794…4e607f06
2f0794989cf1121f5600efbae1a7569ce6463ffbeda5e7e82345b82e4e607f06 - Judged Oct 28ISRGIntuitive SurgicalCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Intuitive Surgical 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 3.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 5:04 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 2ca91c…b180ebc4
2ca91c81c1730a00dbd71a8af1ef30a2a46695cf2eb37bd84f5d99ddb180ebc4 - Judged Oct 28NFLXNetflixCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Netflix (NFLX) earnings Q3 2026The stock fell 4.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 4:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 739a64…bc4e6962
739a643bf6a7ed1d3f2436c73bff802ed975d796780efa1524f2636ebc4e6962 - Judged Oct 27KRKrogerCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kroger 8-K: Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01)The stock rose 4.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 9c1f60…311fb490
9c1f60cede60faa9e65ddfc3d99b04d25493db834b649b7d11cab1ce311fb490 - Judged Oct 26AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Arm and AMD Fall 5% as Qualcomm Verdict Adds to Chip Selloff; Taiwan Semiconductor SlipsThe stock fell 1.2%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 11:17 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 6a0768…4ff2f6c9
6a07688f4ac35c73ac55946a1cd4e4b8f0dbf012c345efb3d861c69a4ff2f6c9 - Judged Oct 26ETNEatonCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Accounting or distress · EatonThe stock fell 5.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 5:30 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint c5fee4…0e394b8e
c5fee40c879546cab9bf85d1c6734e4857c3342f9a238dc36e6765960e394b8e - Judged Oct 23BACBank of AmericaCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Bank of America Down? Customers Report CashPro, Login and Online Banking Problems in Friday Morning OutageThe stock fell 1.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 1:32 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint e41b47…b77daeff
e41b47127a5eae20b8ba7ad8c6dd1f9bfdfa9596fdbe8e95e5c977afb77daeff - Judged Oct 23TFCTruistCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Truist 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.9%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 10:18 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d9e7c3…206dfdbf
d9e7c38647a5d80e0cf9e8861a831790bf447bd872a27b5dc3d827a8206dfdbf - Judged Oct 23WFCWells FargoCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Black Homeownership: Wells Fargo Faces HUD Investigation.The stock fell 1.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 9:16 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 0780fd…ab69d0f2
0780fdafa3a4dff7ee4c4d203a2427625f729fa77c5645ba8caa21c9ab69d0f2 - Judged Oct 22USBU.S.Called Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: U.S. 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 4.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 10:01 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint f4ddae…4cec946f
f4ddae9d1e208a07b5b63953329157d72b50ff57d5182bcaa01d746f4cec946f - Judged Oct 22BNYBNYCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: BNY 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 6:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint a6e6db…75452872
a6e6db4c1c1b14f0ce7420fce66583efe8dbc1b45264468117a152a375452872 - Judged Oct 21METAMeta PlatformsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Meta says its GitHub was hacked, exposing 1,500 people's personal data.The stock fell 5.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 2e5758…0a9ccf51
2e5758467bef36666a16b666f369eeba973c625d3f4d66659e18ac860a9ccf51 - Judged Oct 21LLYEli LillyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Eli Lilly Reports Earnings on Oct. 29. Here's Why the Retatrutide Story Matters More Than the Quarter.The stock rose 5.0%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 613923…bb4c488f
613923e8b225fa81fa1b9237b844157db247215cf25f74736d9e8efebb4c488f - Judged Oct 20JPMJPMorgan ChaseCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: JPMorgan Chase 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 10:16 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 4189da…516a7845
4189dabd973f0935b3f5f2750b98beba6339a12d97a142b0aed6c04e516a7845 - Judged Oct 20UNHUnitedHealthCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: UnitedHealth 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 11.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint b49282…3341fc61
b49282cb0026359172803369ebda087736ecd585300824e53d54c2d13341fc61 - Judged Oct 19DALDelta Air LinesCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 forecast on fuel surge, but CEO says demand is still strongThe stock fell 6.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 11, 8:04 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 78ce9a…5b48fa56
78ce9a7f7337a139c2e50ebca83338b1ed473595d40b3191b4ccb3885b48fa56 - Judged Oct 16DVNDevon EnergyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Devon Energy 8-K: Other events (Item 8.01)The stock rose 5.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 4:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 2b85bd…01ef7776
2b85bd6e2ae847516ea7a1fd8cd38856295f49719f0bfd41c1645dcc01ef7776 - Judged Oct 15GDGeneral DynamicsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: General Dynamics 8-K: Director or officer change (Item 5.02)The stock rose 2.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 11:16 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 001fde…66d0abf1
001fdea34caf3073a62b5bf80182e98f3a02d3a8cab273fbc712dbb666d0abf1 - Judged Oct 14LMTLockheed MartinCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: BAE Systems wins Lockheed Martin contract to supply F-35 EW systemsThe stock rose 4.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 7, 3:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d12639…6aafc1ef
d12639513053ca792754665e1cffcd9772f555b3c76165a1fbc1fdaf6aafc1ef
Chain check: all 271 calls in the ledger match their fingerprints
Each call's fingerprint includes the one before it, so no past call can be changed without breaking every one after it. Open calls are in the ledger too; they appear here once graded.
Latest daily stamp: Oct 30 · in Bitcoin block 973,872
What counts. Calls made from Oct 7, 2026 on (scorer version stage_a-7 and later). The 89 calls made by earlier test versions stay in the ledger, but they aren't counted or listed here.
How a call is judged. From the first closing price after the call was locked to the close one or five trading days later, adjusted for dividends and splits. A move of 0.2% or less (next day) or 0.5% or less (five days) counts as flat and is left out of the hit rate. Each simple guess is scored on the same calls, and only where it has the data it needs.
General market commentary, made the same way for everyone. It isn't investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and past accuracy does not promise future results.