Our calls, graded in public.
Each call is locked before the market reacts, then judged on real closing prices once its time is up. Hits and misses stay here for good. Updated every trading day.
Not proven yet. Foghorn won't call itself proven until it has 300 graded five-day calls that beat every simple guess below. Please don't trade on these.
Against simple guesses, on the same calls
On calls for the next trading day, Foghorn is ahead of 3 of 5 simple guesses, behind 1, level with 1. If it can't beat these, it isn't worth paying for.
- FoghornOur calls64%67 that moved
- Just guessing upCalling every stock up, on the same days55%67 that movedAhead
- Coin flipUp or down at random, fixed by each call's fingerprint so anyone can redo it61%67 that movedAhead
- Following the last weekCalling the way the stock moved in the 5 days before60%67 that movedAhead
- Following the sectorCalling the way its industry moved in the 5 days before66%67 that movedBehind
- The AI's read on its ownThe AI's up or down from the news alone, where it read the story · Foghorn 64% on these calls64%64 that movedLevel
- Foghorn, against the S&P 500Right only when the stock beat the S&P 500 (for an up call) or trailed it (for a down call)62%63 that moved
With 67 calls where the stock moved, Foghorn's true hit rate is likely between 52% and 75% (95% range). It narrows as more calls are graded.
Does “how sure” mean anything?
Every call says how likely it is to be right. Each group should come true about as often as it says. Both call lengths together.
- When it said “a bit better than even”98 that movedSaid about 54%, right 62% of the time
- When it said “about 6 in 10”11 that movedSaid about 58%, right 64% of the time
The bar is how often calls came true; the black mark is what they said. Groups with few calls swing a lot.
Every graded call
Calls for the next trading day, most recently judged first. Open calls appear once they're graded, and once every other call on the same news is graded too, so none gives an open call away.- Judged Oct 30HWMHowmet AerospaceCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Howmet Aerospace Posts Record Quarterly Growth With Expanding MarginsThe stock fell 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 29, 10:01 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 6249ab…6b1c98ff
6249ab636db5bec6b210968b27effc285e9e7b2c952599d6f5d031d56b1c98ff - Judged Oct 30NVDANvidiaCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: NVIDIA Sets Conference Call for Third-Quarter Financial ResultsThe stock fell 4.2%Result: WrongLocked Oct 28, 6:19 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint c7ebba…9174dc15
c7ebba07bca24324881d04c968117d6a0df4651ddf31835db78eeec69174dc15 - Judged Oct 28UPSUnited Parcel ServiceCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: United Parcel Service 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 0.5%Result: WrongLocked Oct 27, 9:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 722cb0…ac6d0fe1
722cb0f5fe7474664f64384a49b95ab136901e7523159cf992e23866ac6d0fe1 - Judged Oct 26AXPAmerican ExpressCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: American Express cuts 3,500 jobs in bid to contain rising costsThe stock rose 0.7%Result: WrongLocked Oct 23, 11:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint ffb1fa…5c787f1f
ffb1fadb10186ee39fbb6e18084b6e526f15b26084d544dc6dff70955c787f1f - Judged Oct 23BXBlackstoneCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Blackstone 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 10:03 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 8b09eb…8b30ebe0
8b09eb579ea76ade334185b27f505ab9f094bb04d04c6fba2843152f8b30ebe0 - Judged Oct 23CMCSAComcastCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Comcast 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 0.7%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 9:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint f8207e…196e2b7a
f8207eaa688e52685e9420f8ade52dd30c22d86ed34fab9328a48120196e2b7a - Judged Oct 23PGProcter & GambleCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Procter & Gamble 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 2.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 7:18 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint e95f8c…b11ea164
e95f8cd1f3b39637158622a2e783719ef225d7dd53cfb5a9a1e40911b11ea164 - Judged Oct 23HBANHuntington BancsharesCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Huntington Bancshares 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 0.3%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 6:31 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint fc5d55…b33ee4d2
fc5d557562d96b7be17d81f2c194dad4ce689d60b08b9da030e857ebb33ee4d2 - Judged Oct 22LLYEli LillyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: GLP-1 Recall - Zepbound, Mounjaro IncludedThe stock rose 2.8%Result: WrongLocked Oct 21, 12:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 56cc46…a32dcb54
56cc46e311786a7361c938a57382209e422daafb5116229814dc789fa32dcb54 - Judged Oct 22GMGeneral MotorsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: After Massive Q3 Profits And Issuing A Stock Buyback The Market Punishes General Motors For Lack Of A FutureThe stock rose 1.5%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 6:46 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 9500f9…4b6a347c
9500f920a66ef773a3cd8ca21ae86ab5daa944b833d1d14b0b3527d34b6a347c - Judged Oct 22ORCLOracleCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Recon: AZ, Oracle partner for AI-powered clinical trials; FDA approves Haemonetics vascular closure systemThe stock fell 2.8%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 6:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint fcd0cc…1deecb48
fcd0cc837aee946ab279effa1320885abb35d647bda9c25ba62aa6401deecb48 - Judged Oct 22NFLXNetflixCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Netflix (NFLX) earnings Q3 2026The stock rose 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 4:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 206611…165765b7
206611a605562d33efe9a67dfc94cf55b1bcc2e8df7924ea7087e8e6165765b7 - Judged Oct 21CRMSalesforceCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Salesforce 8-K: Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01)The stock fell 0.3%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 1081b1…920cd1a5
1081b126b1e30caf20f330dda5f2a421b74008ab6a0d49ab5bb5e863920cd1a5 - Judged Oct 19TFCTruistCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Truist 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 1.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 16, 10:18 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint b35635…90f19c9b
b35635e7fe00688aabca27e6bf651f3b0243453d34e3034f171400e490f19c9b - Judged Oct 19LLYEli LillyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Clinical trial · Eli LillyThe stock fell 1.3%Result: WrongLocked Oct 16, 10:00 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint affe95…379aa961
affe955679777df0b584dfceabb8124fadda866b02fb74346b78cddd379aa961 - Judged Oct 16JNJJohnson & JohnsonCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Johnson & Johnson PR: Tylenol Recall to Talc SettlementThe stock rose 0.9%Result: WrongLocked Oct 15, 11:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 00d508…65990979
00d508bd3f93a0c4bbaa2c898a6146c41e4ebaf7d0c817d691b2f1d165990979 - Judged Oct 16DUKDuke EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Duke Energy Stock Sees Q3 Earnings Estimate Cut at KeyCorpThe stock rose 2.2%Result: WrongLocked Oct 15, 8:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 4aa127…d4f27f4b
4aa127213d812675cd8066468f02ab325ac85d499e8ee5b7b8742c75d4f27f4b - Judged Oct 14NVDANvidiaCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Chinese AI companies buy 1 million Nvidia GPUs in a single year, report claims — export control-compliant chips flood the market to bridge gap in compute demandThe stock fell 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 13, 12:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d4c118…db337cd5
d4c1188bf8a0ee561a3e3fc75c2cd0e7a7fc66ee4c023f12b53e37d4db337cd5 - Judged Oct 14GSGoldman SachsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Goldman Sachs 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 1.5%Result: WrongLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 438a43…71340c04
438a43eadf433b42b658b4d246749aa7469386cc067870524386978071340c04 - Judged Oct 13FFord MotorCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Trump threatens new tariffs, attacks Carney and Ford as trade war escalates : My West Nipissing NowThe stock rose 1.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 12, 10:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 947d0e…a112c7d0
947d0ed04506b0d423ee19182c874bee0d130df0f1770f1de252f49fa112c7d0 - Judged Oct 12VLOValero EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Hurricane Warning for Gulf of Mexico: North Mobile Bay; South Mobile Bay; Mississippi Sound; Perdido Bay Area; Pensacola Bay Area including Santa Rosa Sound; Western ChoctawhatchThe stock rose 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 9, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d96f3a…9884cefc
d96f3a141199f610f978e781e3431f0f8493103f92908b04e3d4f78d9884cefc - Judged Oct 9TSLATeslaCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Tesla, Rivian, and Uber Are Down Between 16% and 26%. Here's the Best Buy for the Robotaxi Takeover.The stock rose 2.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 8, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint fee60c…26ce244f
fee60cc2b58b3485a48b1d428dd033dade5111a262e52f81349b326c26ce244f - Judged Oct 8PFEPfizerCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Pfizer's Tukysa approved for front-line breast cancer (PFE)The stock fell 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 7, 3:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 2ea59b…000430b2
2ea59be736424b23ee175bf1a3fc602e9c4874e1ea01b112be3e809a000430b2 - Judged Oct 8CVXChevronCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Chevron to Shed Hess Midstream Stake in Major Bakken RestructuringThe stock rose 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 7, 5:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 5c3a65…6eebe41e
5c3a65ab2b7454c2ce310acebb3629d7643b2f48a903a9e77a0c2c646eebe41e
Chain check: all 271 calls in the ledger match their fingerprints
Each call's fingerprint includes the one before it, so no past call can be changed without breaking every one after it. Open calls are in the ledger too; they appear here once graded.
Latest daily stamp: Oct 30 · in Bitcoin block 973,872
What counts. Calls made from Oct 7, 2026 on (scorer version stage_a-7 and later). The 89 calls made by earlier test versions stay in the ledger, but they aren't counted or listed here.
How a call is judged. From the first closing price after the call was locked to the close one or five trading days later, adjusted for dividends and splits. A move of 0.2% or less (next day) or 0.5% or less (five days) counts as flat and is left out of the hit rate. Each simple guess is scored on the same calls, and only where it has the data it needs.
General market commentary, made the same way for everyone. It isn't investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and past accuracy does not promise future results.