Public scorecardStill being tested

Our calls, graded in public.

Each call is locked before the market reacts, then judged on real closing prices once its time is up. Hits and misses stay here for good. Updated every trading day.

Not proven yet. Foghorn won't call itself proven until it has 300 graded five-day calls that beat every simple guess below. Please don't trade on these.

43 of 300 five-day calls
Right, next day43 of 6764% of calls where the stock moved · 3 flat
vs just guessing up+9 ptsit scored 55% on the same 67 calls
vs a coin flip+3 ptsit scored 61% on the same 67 calls
Simple guesses beaten3 of 5behind 1, level with 1: all shown below

Against simple guesses, on the same calls

On calls for the next trading day, Foghorn is ahead of 3 of 5 simple guesses, behind 1, level with 1. If it can't beat these, it isn't worth paying for.

  • Foghorn
    Our calls
    64%
  • Just guessing up
    Calling every stock up, on the same days
    55%Ahead
  • Coin flip
    Up or down at random, fixed by each call's fingerprint so anyone can redo it
    61%Ahead
  • Following the last week
    Calling the way the stock moved in the 5 days before
    60%Ahead
  • Following the sector
    Calling the way its industry moved in the 5 days before
    66%Behind
  • The AI's read on its own
    The AI's up or down from the news alone, where it read the story · Foghorn 64% on these calls
    64%Level
A tougher test
  • Foghorn, against the S&P 500
    Right only when the stock beat the S&P 500 (for an up call) or trailed it (for a down call)
    62%

With 67 calls where the stock moved, Foghorn's true hit rate is likely between 52% and 75% (95% range). It narrows as more calls are graded.

Does “how sure” mean anything?

Every call says how likely it is to be right. Each group should come true about as often as it says. Both call lengths together.

  • When it said “a bit better than even”98 that moved
    Said about 54%, right 62% of the time
  • When it said “about 6 in 10”11 that moved
    Said about 58%, right 64% of the time

The bar is how often calls came true; the black mark is what they said. Groups with few calls swing a lot.

Every graded call

Calls for the next trading day, most recently judged first. Open calls appear once they're graded, and once every other call on the same news is graded too, so none gives an open call away.
  • Judged Oct 30HWMHowmet AerospaceCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Howmet Aerospace Posts Record Quarterly Growth With Expanding MarginsThe stock fell 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 29, 10:01 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 6249ab…6b1c98ff6249ab636db5bec6b210968b27effc285e9e7b2c952599d6f5d031d56b1c98ff
  • Judged Oct 30NVDANvidiaCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: NVIDIA Sets Conference Call for Third-Quarter Financial ResultsThe stock fell 4.2%Result: WrongLocked Oct 28, 6:19 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint c7ebba…9174dc15c7ebba07bca24324881d04c968117d6a0df4651ddf31835db78eeec69174dc15
  • Judged Oct 28UPSUnited Parcel ServiceCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: United Parcel Service 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 0.5%Result: WrongLocked Oct 27, 9:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 722cb0…ac6d0fe1722cb0f5fe7474664f64384a49b95ab136901e7523159cf992e23866ac6d0fe1
  • Judged Oct 26AXPAmerican ExpressCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: American Express cuts 3,500 jobs in bid to contain rising costsThe stock rose 0.7%Result: WrongLocked Oct 23, 11:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint ffb1fa…5c787f1fffb1fadb10186ee39fbb6e18084b6e526f15b26084d544dc6dff70955c787f1f
  • Judged Oct 23BXBlackstoneCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Blackstone 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 10:03 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 8b09eb…8b30ebe08b09eb579ea76ade334185b27f505ab9f094bb04d04c6fba2843152f8b30ebe0
  • Judged Oct 23CMCSAComcastCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Comcast 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 0.7%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 9:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint f8207e…196e2b7af8207eaa688e52685e9420f8ade52dd30c22d86ed34fab9328a48120196e2b7a
  • Judged Oct 23PGProcter & GambleCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Procter & Gamble 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 2.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 7:18 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint e95f8c…b11ea164e95f8cd1f3b39637158622a2e783719ef225d7dd53cfb5a9a1e40911b11ea164
  • Judged Oct 23HBANHuntington BancsharesCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Huntington Bancshares 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 0.3%Result: WrongLocked Oct 22, 6:31 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint fc5d55…b33ee4d2fc5d557562d96b7be17d81f2c194dad4ce689d60b08b9da030e857ebb33ee4d2
  • Judged Oct 22LLYEli LillyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: GLP-1 Recall - Zepbound, Mounjaro IncludedThe stock rose 2.8%Result: WrongLocked Oct 21, 12:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 56cc46…a32dcb5456cc46e311786a7361c938a57382209e422daafb5116229814dc789fa32dcb54
  • Judged Oct 22GMGeneral MotorsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: After Massive Q3 Profits And Issuing A Stock Buyback The Market Punishes General Motors For Lack Of A FutureThe stock rose 1.5%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 6:46 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 9500f9…4b6a347c9500f920a66ef773a3cd8ca21ae86ab5daa944b833d1d14b0b3527d34b6a347c
  • Judged Oct 22ORCLOracleCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Recon: AZ, Oracle partner for AI-powered clinical trials; FDA approves Haemonetics vascular closure systemThe stock fell 2.8%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 6:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint fcd0cc…1deecb48fcd0cc837aee946ab279effa1320885abb35d647bda9c25ba62aa6401deecb48
  • Judged Oct 22NFLXNetflixCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Netflix (NFLX) earnings Q3 2026The stock rose 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 4:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 206611…165765b7206611a605562d33efe9a67dfc94cf55b1bcc2e8df7924ea7087e8e6165765b7
  • Judged Oct 21CRMSalesforceCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Salesforce 8-K: Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01)The stock fell 0.3%Result: WrongLocked Oct 20, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 1081b1…920cd1a51081b126b1e30caf20f330dda5f2a421b74008ab6a0d49ab5bb5e863920cd1a5
  • Judged Oct 19TFCTruistCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Truist 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 1.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 16, 10:18 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint b35635…90f19c9bb35635e7fe00688aabca27e6bf651f3b0243453d34e3034f171400e490f19c9b
  • Judged Oct 19LLYEli LillyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Clinical trial · Eli LillyThe stock fell 1.3%Result: WrongLocked Oct 16, 10:00 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint affe95…379aa961affe955679777df0b584dfceabb8124fadda866b02fb74346b78cddd379aa961
  • Judged Oct 16JNJJohnson & JohnsonCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Johnson & Johnson PR: Tylenol Recall to Talc SettlementThe stock rose 0.9%Result: WrongLocked Oct 15, 11:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 00d508…6599097900d508bd3f93a0c4bbaa2c898a6146c41e4ebaf7d0c817d691b2f1d165990979
  • Judged Oct 16DUKDuke EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Duke Energy Stock Sees Q3 Earnings Estimate Cut at KeyCorpThe stock rose 2.2%Result: WrongLocked Oct 15, 8:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 4aa127…d4f27f4b4aa127213d812675cd8066468f02ab325ac85d499e8ee5b7b8742c75d4f27f4b
  • Judged Oct 14NVDANvidiaCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Chinese AI companies buy 1 million Nvidia GPUs in a single year, report claims — export control-compliant chips flood the market to bridge gap in compute demandThe stock fell 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 13, 12:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint d4c118…db337cd5d4c1188bf8a0ee561a3e3fc75c2cd0e7a7fc66ee4c023f12b53e37d4db337cd5
  • Judged Oct 14GSGoldman SachsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Goldman Sachs 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 1.5%Result: WrongLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 438a43…71340c04438a43eadf433b42b658b4d246749aa7469386cc067870524386978071340c04
  • Judged Oct 13FFord MotorCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Trump threatens new tariffs, attacks Carney and Ford as trade war escalates : My West Nipissing NowThe stock rose 1.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 12, 10:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 947d0e…a112c7d0947d0ed04506b0d423ee19182c874bee0d130df0f1770f1de252f49fa112c7d0
  • Judged Oct 12VLOValero EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Hurricane Warning for Gulf of Mexico: North Mobile Bay; South Mobile Bay; Mississippi Sound; Perdido Bay Area; Pensacola Bay Area including Santa Rosa Sound; Western ChoctawhatchThe stock rose 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 9, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint d96f3a…9884cefcd96f3a141199f610f978e781e3431f0f8493103f92908b04e3d4f78d9884cefc
  • Judged Oct 9TSLATeslaCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Tesla, Rivian, and Uber Are Down Between 16% and 26%. Here's the Best Buy for the Robotaxi Takeover.The stock rose 2.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 8, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint fee60c…26ce244ffee60cc2b58b3485a48b1d428dd033dade5111a262e52f81349b326c26ce244f
  • Judged Oct 8PFEPfizerCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Pfizer's Tukysa approved for front-line breast cancer (PFE)The stock fell 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 7, 3:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 2ea59b…000430b22ea59be736424b23ee175bf1a3fc602e9c4874e1ea01b112be3e809a000430b2
  • Judged Oct 8CVXChevronCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Chevron to Shed Hess Midstream Stake in Major Bakken RestructuringThe stock rose 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 7, 5:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 5c3a65…6eebe41e5c3a65ab2b7454c2ce310acebb3629d7643b2f48a903a9e77a0c2c646eebe41e

Chain check: all 271 calls in the ledger match their fingerprints

Each call's fingerprint includes the one before it, so no past call can be changed without breaking every one after it. Open calls are in the ledger too; they appear here once graded.

Latest daily stamp: Oct 30 · in Bitcoin block 973,872

How the proof works

What counts. Calls made from Oct 7, 2026 on (scorer version stage_a-7 and later). The 89 calls made by earlier test versions stay in the ledger, but they aren't counted or listed here.

How a call is judged. From the first closing price after the call was locked to the close one or five trading days later, adjusted for dividends and splits. A move of 0.2% or less (next day) or 0.5% or less (five days) counts as flat and is left out of the hit rate. Each simple guess is scored on the same calls, and only where it has the data it needs.

General market commentary, made the same way for everyone. It isn't investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and past accuracy does not promise future results.