Public scorecardStill being tested

Our calls, graded in public.

Each call is locked before the market reacts, then judged on real closing prices once its time is up. Hits and misses stay here for good. Updated every trading day.

Not proven yet. Foghorn won't call itself proven until it has 300 graded five-day calls that beat every simple guess below. Please don't trade on these.

43 of 300 five-day calls
Right, next day43 of 6764% of calls where the stock moved · 3 flat
vs just guessing up+9 ptsit scored 55% on the same 67 calls
vs a coin flip+3 ptsit scored 61% on the same 67 calls
Simple guesses beaten3 of 5behind 1, level with 1: all shown below

Against simple guesses, on the same calls

On calls for the next trading day, Foghorn is ahead of 3 of 5 simple guesses, behind 1, level with 1. If it can't beat these, it isn't worth paying for.

  • Foghorn
    Our calls
    64%
  • Just guessing up
    Calling every stock up, on the same days
    55%Ahead
  • Coin flip
    Up or down at random, fixed by each call's fingerprint so anyone can redo it
    61%Ahead
  • Following the last week
    Calling the way the stock moved in the 5 days before
    60%Ahead
  • Following the sector
    Calling the way its industry moved in the 5 days before
    66%Behind
  • The AI's read on its own
    The AI's up or down from the news alone, where it read the story · Foghorn 64% on these calls
    64%Level
A tougher test
  • Foghorn, against the S&P 500
    Right only when the stock beat the S&P 500 (for an up call) or trailed it (for a down call)
    62%

With 67 calls where the stock moved, Foghorn's true hit rate is likely between 52% and 75% (95% range). It narrows as more calls are graded.

Does “how sure” mean anything?

Every call says how likely it is to be right. Each group should come true about as often as it says. Both call lengths together.

  • When it said “a bit better than even”98 that moved
    Said about 54%, right 62% of the time
  • When it said “about 6 in 10”11 that moved
    Said about 58%, right 64% of the time

The bar is how often calls came true; the black mark is what they said. Groups with few calls swing a lot.

Every graded call

Calls for the next trading day, most recently judged first. Open calls appear once they're graded, and once every other call on the same news is graded too, so none gives an open call away.
  • Judged Oct 30MRKMerckCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Merck Lifts Outlook on a Lower Tax Rate: Rapid Earnings ReactionThe stock rose 2.2%Result: RightLocked Oct 29, 3:32 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint b1e487…c474da1eb1e487a23962b57420fd4803a74704fddcb78eb533b3af17685fad02c474da1e
  • Judged Oct 29PGProcter & GambleCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: How cashmere-like diapers helped fuel P&G's standout quarter, despite inflationThe stock rose 1.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 27, 6:17 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 709d1d…5cd268fb709d1df0cc7c7c907ab06301e35b0e10e2e30f5678ec3b9e00f3a9e05cd268fb
  • Judged Oct 28AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesCalled Uphow sure: about 6 in 10The news: AMD to Acquire World Labs to Advance AI Compute and InfrastructureThe stock rose 3.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 27, 9:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint a5f2e4…525730dba5f2e419da6f05864e5ce804efbd479292df40a18d31dd3b7cd22741525730db
  • Judged Oct 28KOCoca-ColaCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Coca-Cola Q3 2026: Volume growth and raised guidance signal real momentumThe stock rose 0.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 27, 7:33 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 1d4322…a2a9c0101d4322ccf49d44407aec2e1edb455fcef36c782f33ec59be5e6b4ba3a2a9c010
  • Judged Oct 26RTXRTXCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Raytheon wins Marine Corps infrared sensor contractThe stock rose 3.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 23, 3:48 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint cc2eb7…03512b10cc2eb7879b7638793f23afaf1d1d9a94d2f749045ff47487c97cc68503512b10
  • Judged Oct 26WMTWalmartCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Deal (M&A) · WalmartThe stock rose 0.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 23, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint f8f1d7…62c05bd9f8f1d7a132a7f3575342855a046815baf10eaff7204e9995924f36ea62c05bd9
  • Judged Oct 23AMZNAmazonCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Hackers pile on PHP2Shell as AWS reveals attacks began before disclosureThe stock fell 1.0%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 1:18 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 726986…7146cf1d7269862d5a90b5df61637624953da8da3653316e0e3673dd2d56c7ab7146cf1d
  • Judged Oct 23KMIKinder MorganCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kinder Morgan 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.2%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 1:18 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint a1eec2…0845dfbfa1eec2126c9fc12e5f9a9bbe525b3b3f615117a3515fad2dda91c9330845dfbf
  • Judged Oct 23IBMIBMCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: IBM 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 0.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 10:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint fa4007…b06b5644fa40072ce5e8062ec6d74508b6f242ede807902d2627e76580f94ec5b06b5644
  • Judged Oct 23HONHoneywellCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Honeywell 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 22, 6:31 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint ef919b…d6569190ef919be705415ef34aab6f7ae59c32bb804f6305e74d407f9bf03d10d6569190
  • Judged Oct 23TXNTexas InstrumentsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Texas Instruments 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 6:03 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 3ea4cf…09ca72a43ea4cf18e5861ea60a7e4b8fb4eac0fe020190ad338eab3b86ed559809ca72a4
  • Judged Oct 23METAMeta PlatformsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Meta ordered to pay New Mexico $25 billion over Cambridge Analytica breachThe stock fell 1.0%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 4:31 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 449314…54215dc344931469fc32a6c07b2915b2c13ed4e94fd3dcf2edbd976ae665f10554215dc3
  • Judged Oct 22JNJJohnson & JohnsonCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Drugs Lift Guidance, but Is 23 Times Earnings Fair?The stock rose 3.9%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 3:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 0042de…802be76d0042de131f22dc632f53356a8683765327647ccf7546b84d6d765103802be76d
  • Judged Oct 22GSGoldman SachsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Hearing Notice - CIRO to Hold a Settlement Hearing for Goldman Sachs Canada Inc.The stock fell 1.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 3:15 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint cba478…dcffab1bcba478937c9f37de722126d1fa3432ff9a48c49a6f0650aa37106caedcffab1b
  • Judged Oct 22ELVElevance HealthCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Elevance Health 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 12:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint cf37f5…197cfd1ecf37f579abce24a284cba29895362160ae4d6ec85b92ff0c11591f19197cfd1e
  • Judged Oct 22CMECMECalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: CME 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 3.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 7:16 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 3ec2dc…3833719f3ec2dcd70f7614a19c5c5ea3103e76efa66b91772ec1e590fd6619813833719f
  • Judged Oct 22TAT&TCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: AT&T 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 3.9%Result: RightLocked Oct 21, 6:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 84f0ae…09d39a9e84f0ae7126f8c507e57c41c7b69a5ac8031c64a2925e9302eca898e409d39a9e
  • Judged Oct 22CBChubbCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Chubb 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 6:18 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint e0385f…c294ae91e0385f81d27107bc9fde7a43cd5d8242104ae3c5c9a41ee6ae3088f9c294ae91
  • Judged Oct 22ISRGIntuitive SurgicalCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Intuitive Surgical 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 3.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 5:04 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 72e4ce…fdcc5b2472e4ceb9f2a06bdfe164c46dc2407927f145da0319cfeb0b9ac3ebfefdcc5b24
  • Judged Oct 22VZVerizonCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Deal (M&A) · VerizonThe stock rose 3.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 4:30 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint c84534…dcb8bc45c845345c42af1b2cc2daebf7ac468d10f84d6ad7401d2bfdcb668918dcb8bc45
  • Judged Oct 21KRKrogerCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kroger 8-K: Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01)The stock rose 1.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 20, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 7f7125…b64524da7f7125ab1d510fda5fb9b482d800d82e0b73969c7286e59a982d8ccab64524da
  • Judged Oct 20WMTWalmartCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Walmart Says Higher Fuel Costs Will Offset Tariff Refund BenefitThe stock fell 0.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 17, 6:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 3970e3…d715dcd23970e3c7f8946b93661745c03b66c6fd9514b4035cdb64d7a4cfba7fd715dcd2
  • Judged Oct 20AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Arm and AMD Fall 5% as Qualcomm Verdict Adds to Chip Selloff; Taiwan Semiconductor SlipsThe stock fell 0.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 11:17 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 076d07…48f8fef3076d07722a30957bd5ca8bc77710883c5dfb017405f17ca6303c848f48f8fef3
  • Judged Oct 20ETNEatonCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Accounting or distress · EatonThe stock fell 2.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 5:30 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 672c89…e5a789fd672c89cfdb87c29cdd06ca4e61006e04b7f1869289e40a827ea3d12ae5a789fd
  • Judged Oct 19BACBank of AmericaCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Bank of America Down? Customers Report CashPro, Login and Online Banking Problems in Friday Morning OutageThe stock fell 1.6%Result: RightLocked Oct 16, 1:32 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 807b43…23ab24df807b436ab3d514895f001dcae5139213532d2d5ffddf8416d626322c23ab24df
  • Judged Oct 19WFCWells FargoCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Black Homeownership: Wells Fargo Faces HUD Investigation.The stock fell 2.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 9:16 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 65729e…788d701065729e3d9834a5c77ffead7dacc5224c229e257a2e7ae65e1737874e788d7010
  • Judged Oct 19LHXL3HarrisCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: HGT Law Announces Investigation of L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:LHX)The stock fell 1.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 4:17 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 738f60…0480f27a738f60d1b664b7a7a63ad587833dc3ffd354f49c6022d072430a64230480f27a
  • Judged Oct 16NVDANvidiaCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Stock Market Today: Dow Rises On Surprise Inflation Data; Nvidia, Micron, AMD Slide On AI FearsThe stock fell 1.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 3:45 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 3c96e8…5e25531c3c96e819f0635ea9219ab720dc2311029774b55182deb008e76d53745e25531c
  • Judged Oct 16USBU.S.Called Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: U.S. 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 2.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 10:01 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint b5dad6…6c0f1756b5dad666e14b44b0eb17456be7065e36d6556e4715faef3c02d8357a6c0f1756
  • Judged Oct 16BNYBNYCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: BNY 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 0.9%Result: RightLocked Oct 15, 6:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 7bf8a6…91ddb8da7bf8a658f6e904269a7207ab10247986f4638217a77a39acf7d4262a91ddb8da
  • Judged Oct 16UPSUnited Parcel ServiceCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Prediction: UPS Will Miss Estimates (but the Stock Could Still Be a Good Value)The stock fell 0.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 11:31 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint bcd929…36c7212abcd929261df97112589274f9c499e8e4396cfce319d737d9a2ffbc8336c7212a
  • Judged Oct 15INTCIntelCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kiryat Gat Intel's factory sees at least three people injured in explosionThe stock fell 2.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 10:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 07c4a3…d6a143d207c4a30b22d8aa18d1cfd364039760fba9fb863f4101dd323ed8f4f6d6a143d2
  • Judged Oct 15METAMeta PlatformsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Meta says its GitHub was hacked, exposing 1,500 people's personal data.The stock fell 0.2%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 1105c3…044df6ca1105c3a1c2be2bdfe4f6e575d1891c645ae27795a68ab08ae5c26925044df6ca
  • Judged Oct 14BABoeingCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Airworthiness Directives: The Boeing Company AirplanesThe stock fell 1.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 2:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 0944dc…6b2de9140944dc8f64779e95aaea7c0ca4a9f726784d3ce0a66eca45f8963e396b2de914
  • Judged Oct 14JPMJPMorgan ChaseCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: JPMorgan Chase 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint ea3bcb…0a5303b9ea3bcb8ad24b8013310282a04d4d841613463fb1ad3bac95ae49a36b0a5303b9
  • Judged Oct 14UNHUnitedHealthCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: UnitedHealth 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 4.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 13982a…3cf3de0813982a5e3cde7d3a7c6c6306887894974dba1a58fd93d7f8bf23452b3cf3de08
  • Judged Oct 13DALDelta Air LinesCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 forecast on fuel surge, but CEO says demand is still strongThe stock fell 0.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 11, 8:04 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint b6911d…75d36b44b6911d482ad43319991d4d296d51204ca682d7a3c25c5c955f02681375d36b44
  • Judged Oct 13NEENextEra EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Hurricane Warning for Gulf of Mexico: North Mobile Bay; South Mobile Bay; Mississippi Sound; Perdido Bay Area; Pensacola Bay Area including Santa Rosa Sound; Western ChoctawhatchThe stock fell 0.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 10, 12:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint ddd250…79913427ddd25045949d03d3cd0f11a683675db8ecb650d20d419c05633444ab79913427
  • Judged Oct 12KMIKinder MorganCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kinder Morgan Restores U.S.-Mexico Gas Flows After Pipeline OutageThe stock rose 1.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 6:18 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint d8fc1e…788fd7a9d8fc1ebb0a2bf958e11f11807fda2990766aeee1189270a915c3ecdb788fd7a9
  • Judged Oct 12DVNDevon EnergyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Devon Energy 8-K: Other events (Item 8.01)The stock rose 1.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 4:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 830a8b…5330069c830a8b6e42455f49ac82f98603ad86e7469dcd76902fb046f9bebc2f5330069c
  • Judged Oct 9GDGeneral DynamicsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: General Dynamics 8-K: Director or officer change (Item 5.02)The stock rose 0.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 11:16 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 150769…f83e4536150769a8246280dc0808c5417b0c4dddf8de1c6cb20e0cc0755d181af83e4536
  • Judged Oct 8LMTLockheed MartinCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: BAE Systems wins Lockheed Martin contract to supply F-35 EW systemsThe stock rose 1.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 7, 3:15 PM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 83e5b6…49bcadca83e5b6fececd14ab76d6685d99f57fe89797f1973d728725193a7eb149bcadca
  • Judged Oct 8BABoeingCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Airworthiness Directives: The Boeing Company AirplanesThe stock fell 0.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 7, 9:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
    Fingerprint 336269…a0962806336269c36ce7c2ae17955f802b7a237c11cb2061011397d7751cbc58a0962806

Chain check: all 271 calls in the ledger match their fingerprints

Each call's fingerprint includes the one before it, so no past call can be changed without breaking every one after it. Open calls are in the ledger too; they appear here once graded.

Latest daily stamp: Oct 30 · in Bitcoin block 973,872

How the proof works

What counts. Calls made from Oct 7, 2026 on (scorer version stage_a-7 and later). The 89 calls made by earlier test versions stay in the ledger, but they aren't counted or listed here.

How a call is judged. From the first closing price after the call was locked to the close one or five trading days later, adjusted for dividends and splits. A move of 0.2% or less (next day) or 0.5% or less (five days) counts as flat and is left out of the hit rate. Each simple guess is scored on the same calls, and only where it has the data it needs.

General market commentary, made the same way for everyone. It isn't investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and past accuracy does not promise future results.