Our calls, graded in public.
Each call is locked before the market reacts, then judged on real closing prices once its time is up. Hits and misses stay here for good. Updated every trading day.
Not proven yet. Foghorn won't call itself proven until it has 300 graded five-day calls that beat every simple guess below. Please don't trade on these.
Against simple guesses, on the same calls
On calls for the next trading day, Foghorn is ahead of 3 of 5 simple guesses, behind 1, level with 1. If it can't beat these, it isn't worth paying for.
- FoghornOur calls64%67 that moved
- Just guessing upCalling every stock up, on the same days55%67 that movedAhead
- Coin flipUp or down at random, fixed by each call's fingerprint so anyone can redo it61%67 that movedAhead
- Following the last weekCalling the way the stock moved in the 5 days before60%67 that movedAhead
- Following the sectorCalling the way its industry moved in the 5 days before66%67 that movedBehind
- The AI's read on its ownThe AI's up or down from the news alone, where it read the story · Foghorn 64% on these calls64%64 that movedLevel
- Foghorn, against the S&P 500Right only when the stock beat the S&P 500 (for an up call) or trailed it (for a down call)62%63 that moved
With 67 calls where the stock moved, Foghorn's true hit rate is likely between 52% and 75% (95% range). It narrows as more calls are graded.
Does “how sure” mean anything?
Every call says how likely it is to be right. Each group should come true about as often as it says. Both call lengths together.
- When it said “a bit better than even”98 that movedSaid about 54%, right 62% of the time
- When it said “about 6 in 10”11 that movedSaid about 58%, right 64% of the time
The bar is how often calls came true; the black mark is what they said. Groups with few calls swing a lot.
Every graded call
Calls for the next trading day, most recently judged first. Open calls appear once they're graded, and once every other call on the same news is graded too, so none gives an open call away.- Judged Oct 26SLBSLBCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: SLB 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock barely moved (+0.1%)Result: FlatLocked Oct 23, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint bc68e3…dd7be2d9
bc68e3edc91ee1acbb6d53a81cda2241fd0bed35cf6f3c987b1982dadd7be2d9 - Judged Oct 9DUKDuke EnergyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Duke Energy reaches agreement on new, special rates for large users like data centersThe stock barely moved (−0.1%)Result: FlatLocked Oct 8, 12:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint a8726a…a8370c3f
a8726a7ac1041d48560e4ea6ea242f56a7f2e3f46d22f5ca0659d9e4a8370c3f - Judged Oct 9NEENextEra EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico: 40 mph windsThe stock barely moved (+0.0%)Result: FlatLocked Oct 8, 12:01 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 3f8c7a…bd6f6643
3f8c7a98901ddf5af13d18b2f5297231b6dea2013419c70c0215c866bd6f6643
Chain check: all 271 calls in the ledger match their fingerprints
Each call's fingerprint includes the one before it, so no past call can be changed without breaking every one after it. Open calls are in the ledger too; they appear here once graded.
Latest daily stamp: Oct 30 · in Bitcoin block 973,872
What counts. Calls made from Oct 7, 2026 on (scorer version stage_a-7 and later). The 89 calls made by earlier test versions stay in the ledger, but they aren't counted or listed here.
How a call is judged. From the first closing price after the call was locked to the close one or five trading days later, adjusted for dividends and splits. A move of 0.2% or less (next day) or 0.5% or less (five days) counts as flat and is left out of the hit rate. Each simple guess is scored on the same calls, and only where it has the data it needs.
General market commentary, made the same way for everyone. It isn't investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and past accuracy does not promise future results.