Public scorecardStill being tested
Our calls, graded in public.
Each call is locked before the market reacts, then judged on real closing prices once its time is up. Hits and misses stay here for good. Updated every trading day.
Not proven yet. Foghorn won't call itself proven until it has 300 graded five-day calls that beat every simple guess below. Please don't trade on these.
43 of 300 five-day calls
Right, next day43 of 6764% of calls where the stock moved · 3 flat
vs just guessing up+9 ptsit scored 55% on the same 67 calls
vs a coin flip+3 ptsit scored 61% on the same 67 calls
Simple guesses beaten3 of 5behind 1, level with 1: all shown below
Against simple guesses, on the same calls
On calls for the next trading day, Foghorn is ahead of 3 of 5 simple guesses, behind 1, level with 1. If it can't beat these, it isn't worth paying for.
- FoghornOur calls64%67 that moved
- Just guessing upCalling every stock up, on the same days55%67 that movedAhead
- Coin flipUp or down at random, fixed by each call's fingerprint so anyone can redo it61%67 that movedAhead
- Following the last weekCalling the way the stock moved in the 5 days before60%67 that movedAhead
- Following the sectorCalling the way its industry moved in the 5 days before66%67 that movedBehind
- The AI's read on its ownThe AI's up or down from the news alone, where it read the story · Foghorn 64% on these calls64%64 that movedLevel
A tougher test
- Foghorn, against the S&P 500Right only when the stock beat the S&P 500 (for an up call) or trailed it (for a down call)62%63 that moved
With 67 calls where the stock moved, Foghorn's true hit rate is likely between 52% and 75% (95% range). It narrows as more calls are graded.
Does “how sure” mean anything?
Every call says how likely it is to be right. Each group should come true about as often as it says. Both call lengths together.
- When it said “a bit better than even”98 that movedSaid about 54%, right 62% of the time
- When it said “about 6 in 10”11 that movedSaid about 58%, right 64% of the time
The bar is how often calls came true; the black mark is what they said. Groups with few calls swing a lot.
Every graded call
Calls for the next trading day, most recently judged first. Open calls appear once they're graded, and once every other call on the same news is graded too, so none gives an open call away.- Judged Oct 15METAMeta PlatformsCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Meta says its GitHub was hacked, exposing 1,500 people's personal data.The stock fell 0.2%Result: RightLocked Oct 14, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 1105c3…044df6ca
1105c3a1c2be2bdfe4f6e575d1891c645ae27795a68ab08ae5c26925044df6ca - Judged Oct 14BABoeingCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Airworthiness Directives: The Boeing Company AirplanesThe stock fell 1.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 2:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 0944dc…6b2de914
0944dc8f64779e95aaea7c0ca4a9f726784d3ce0a66eca45f8963e396b2de914 - Judged Oct 14NVDANvidiaCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Chinese AI companies buy 1 million Nvidia GPUs in a single year, report claims — export control-compliant chips flood the market to bridge gap in compute demandThe stock fell 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 13, 12:02 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d4c118…db337cd5
d4c1188bf8a0ee561a3e3fc75c2cd0e7a7fc66ee4c023f12b53e37d4db337cd5 - Judged Oct 14GSGoldman SachsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Goldman Sachs 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock fell 1.5%Result: WrongLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 438a43…71340c04
438a43eadf433b42b658b4d246749aa7469386cc067870524386978071340c04 - Judged Oct 14JPMJPMorgan ChaseCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: JPMorgan Chase 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 1.1%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint ea3bcb…0a5303b9
ea3bcb8ad24b8013310282a04d4d841613463fb1ad3bac95ae49a36b0a5303b9 - Judged Oct 14UNHUnitedHealthCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: UnitedHealth 8-K: Results of operations (Item 2.02)The stock rose 4.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 13, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 13982a…3cf3de08
13982a5e3cde7d3a7c6c6306887894974dba1a58fd93d7f8bf23452b3cf3de08 - Judged Oct 13FFord MotorCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Trump threatens new tariffs, attacks Carney and Ford as trade war escalates : My West Nipissing NowThe stock rose 1.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 12, 10:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 947d0e…a112c7d0
947d0ed04506b0d423ee19182c874bee0d130df0f1770f1de252f49fa112c7d0 - Judged Oct 13DALDelta Air LinesCalled Downhow sure: about 6 in 10The news: Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 forecast on fuel surge, but CEO says demand is still strongThe stock fell 0.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 11, 8:04 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint b6911d…75d36b44
b6911d482ad43319991d4d296d51204ca682d7a3c25c5c955f02681375d36b44 - Judged Oct 13NEENextEra EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Hurricane Warning for Gulf of Mexico: North Mobile Bay; South Mobile Bay; Mississippi Sound; Perdido Bay Area; Pensacola Bay Area including Santa Rosa Sound; Western ChoctawhatchThe stock fell 0.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 10, 12:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint ddd250…79913427
ddd25045949d03d3cd0f11a683675db8ecb650d20d419c05633444ab79913427 - Judged Oct 12VLOValero EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Hurricane Warning for Gulf of Mexico: North Mobile Bay; South Mobile Bay; Mississippi Sound; Perdido Bay Area; Pensacola Bay Area including Santa Rosa Sound; Western ChoctawhatchThe stock rose 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 9, 10:02 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d96f3a…9884cefc
d96f3a141199f610f978e781e3431f0f8493103f92908b04e3d4f78d9884cefc - Judged Oct 12KMIKinder MorganCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Kinder Morgan Restores U.S.-Mexico Gas Flows After Pipeline OutageThe stock rose 1.8%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 6:18 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint d8fc1e…788fd7a9
d8fc1ebb0a2bf958e11f11807fda2990766aeee1189270a915c3ecdb788fd7a9 - Judged Oct 12DVNDevon EnergyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Devon Energy 8-K: Other events (Item 8.01)The stock rose 1.5%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 4:33 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 830a8b…5330069c
830a8b6e42455f49ac82f98603ad86e7469dcd76902fb046f9bebc2f5330069c - Judged Oct 9DUKDuke EnergyCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Duke Energy reaches agreement on new, special rates for large users like data centersThe stock barely moved (−0.1%)Result: FlatLocked Oct 8, 12:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint a8726a…a8370c3f
a8726a7ac1041d48560e4ea6ea242f56a7f2e3f46d22f5ca0659d9e4a8370c3f - Judged Oct 9GDGeneral DynamicsCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: General Dynamics 8-K: Director or officer change (Item 5.02)The stock rose 0.4%Result: RightLocked Oct 8, 11:16 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 150769…f83e4536
150769a8246280dc0808c5417b0c4dddf8de1c6cb20e0cc0755d181af83e4536 - Judged Oct 9TSLATeslaCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Tesla, Rivian, and Uber Are Down Between 16% and 26%. Here's the Best Buy for the Robotaxi Takeover.The stock rose 2.0%Result: WrongLocked Oct 8, 9:48 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint fee60c…26ce244f
fee60cc2b58b3485a48b1d428dd033dade5111a262e52f81349b326c26ce244f - Judged Oct 9NEENextEra EnergyCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico: 40 mph windsThe stock barely moved (+0.0%)Result: FlatLocked Oct 8, 12:01 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 3f8c7a…bd6f6643
3f8c7a98901ddf5af13d18b2f5297231b6dea2013419c70c0215c866bd6f6643 - Judged Oct 8PFEPfizerCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Pfizer's Tukysa approved for front-line breast cancer (PFE)The stock fell 0.6%Result: WrongLocked Oct 7, 3:47 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 2ea59b…000430b2
2ea59be736424b23ee175bf1a3fc602e9c4874e1ea01b112be3e809a000430b2 - Judged Oct 8LMTLockheed MartinCalled Uphow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: BAE Systems wins Lockheed Martin contract to supply F-35 EW systemsThe stock rose 1.7%Result: RightLocked Oct 7, 3:15 PM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 83e5b6…49bcadca
83e5b6fececd14ab76d6685d99f57fe89797f1973d728725193a7eb149bcadca - Judged Oct 8BABoeingCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Airworthiness Directives: The Boeing Company AirplanesThe stock fell 0.3%Result: RightLocked Oct 7, 9:47 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 336269…a0962806
336269c36ce7c2ae17955f802b7a237c11cb2061011397d7751cbc58a0962806 - Judged Oct 8CVXChevronCalled Downhow sure: a bit better than evenThe news: Chevron to Shed Hess Midstream Stake in Major Bakken RestructuringThe stock rose 3.1%Result: WrongLocked Oct 7, 5:32 AM ET , before its first judged close
Fingerprint 5c3a65…6eebe41e
5c3a65ab2b7454c2ce310acebb3629d7643b2f48a903a9e77a0c2c646eebe41e
Chain check: all 271 calls in the ledger match their fingerprints
Each call's fingerprint includes the one before it, so no past call can be changed without breaking every one after it. Open calls are in the ledger too; they appear here once graded.
Latest daily stamp: Oct 30 · in Bitcoin block 973,872
What counts. Calls made from Oct 7, 2026 on (scorer version stage_a-7 and later). The 89 calls made by earlier test versions stay in the ledger, but they aren't counted or listed here.
How a call is judged. From the first closing price after the call was locked to the close one or five trading days later, adjusted for dividends and splits. A move of 0.2% or less (next day) or 0.5% or less (five days) counts as flat and is left out of the hit rate. Each simple guess is scored on the same calls, and only where it has the data it needs.
General market commentary, made the same way for everyone. It isn't investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and past accuracy does not promise future results.